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RHPS Magenta wrote:

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I think you were as entertained with his comments as I was.

I posted a reply to him giggling and said australiamovie.net loves him

Hey Kate - he responded LOL.

Jo wrote:

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My prayer is that most of the movies will be worth the effort and that come December 1, we will be seriously talking about more than 10 movies as major contenders. The more great movies in the world, the better.

And the less that we in the media spend week after week chewing over the same small stories, digging and figthing for any scrap of originality... well, we experienced how exhausting and divisive that kind of fight could be during the Democratic primary this year. Let's, please, not do that again.

David Poland makes a strong point at this time -- most of the predictions so far are gut guesses ( because of previous reputations and the expected plot and production values) -- I think until the supposedly big contenders are released and viewed by critics and pundits, it is really going to be hard to say that any movie is a sure lock or a semi-lock. After which, the studios will seriously start the Oscar campaigns!

I am hopeful about the critical reaction to AUSTRALIA and I am also hopeful that FOX will roll out the budget for the expensive Oscar public relations campaign

I think that's absolutely true - most of the "buzz" right now is going on who stars in the movie (e.g., Leo and Kate), who the director is (like David Fincher), and the subject matter (Milk, Frost/Nixon). No one knows at this point I don't think how any of these films will do or how they will be received - and I'm including Australia in that too. Most of it right now is guesswork - but some of the predictions do come true at awards time. We will just have to wait and see, but speculation is always fun.

Hengist wrote:

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There seem to be quite a few films in the predictions that have a very american flavour - Frost/Nixon, W, Milk, even the Spike Lee movie - and so they're unlikely to do well overseas. I wonder if this will influence the awards bodies. I do see the irony of using this as a criteria to dismiss films when I'm supporting a film called Australia.

Truthfully, those movies that Hengist just mentioned I can't see doing well at the box office at all - most of them, except maybe for the Spike Lee movie, sound like limited releases. I don't think the general public will be rushing out to see Frost/Nixon, Doubt, or Milk - IMO not mainstream movies at all. But then again, how many times do we see the Academy award movies/actors that the general public never sees?

icelemt38 wrote:

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Like last year with the high hopes for Elizabeth, American Gangster, Reservation Road sweeping the oscars way early on in all the prediction sites and then look what happened. Elizabeth was poorly reviewed, Gangster did well BO wise but didn't get any love from the academy, and Reservation Road was almost a straight to DVD movie it was so bad. Thats why I was so relieved when the reviews for the early screenings were so positive. But I do think in the last few years, the smaller movies have been getting the awards more often than the bigger ones, especially in the acting awards. I think if Frost/Nixon doesn't do well, Lenghella still has a big chance to get and acting nod, same with Penn.

I agree re Langella and Penn - I was referring to the movies overall. How many times have we heard an actor we never heard of (Marion Cotillard? Never heard of her before last year) or someone in a smaller movie no one has seen winning.