I am a big proponent of the notion that Phase II of the Oscar season - post-noms - is a second race. And there may be some big surprises this year... but probably not.
In the Top 8 categories, the nominations fell in such a way to make it even more clear in most categories than it was before.
For instance, Penelope Cruz is back to being a near-lock for the otherwise snubbed Vicky Cristina Barcelona with Ms WInslet out of that race. I think Wall-E is now a near-lock to win Best Original Screenplay with the three underdog nominations and only Milk in its way in a real way. (Remember, everyone votes for the win, making it more of a popularity contest, and Milk will likely get its consolation prize in Actor.)
The only Top 8 race I now see as seriously competitive is Best Actor, where Penn, Rourke or Langella will win, but it could easily be any one of the three. A bit less competitive is Best Actress, where Winslet has a lead over Streep and everyone else is just happy to be there (especially Barker & Bernard, even while losing out on Kristin Scott Thomas).
Outside of the Top 8, the big battle is between The Dark Knight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which go head-to-head in Art Direction, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects... aka, the only categories aside from Mr Ledger where there is any chance to win gold.
I am willing to take a flier on 6 of the Top 8 categories with wins for Slumdog Milionaire in Picture, Director, and Screenplay (plus Film Editing, Sound Editing, Score and Song, assisted by the lack of Springsteen), and the other 5 Oscars going to 5 different movies/performances.
So...
I see 7 Oscars for Slumdog Millionaire.
2 for Wall-E
And somewhere between 2 and 4 apiece for Button and/or Batman.
I don't think there will be more than 1 win for any other film.
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